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Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations
Assessing epidemic risk following pathogen introduction is crucial in infectious disease epidemiology. Risk is commonly encoded through …
Boxuan Wang (王博玄)
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Estimating the introduction risk and sustained transmission of the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak 2026 in the Democratic Republic of Congo
During the ongoing Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we quantify introduction risk and …
Reagan Luvande Okingo
,
Berthe Amélie Iroungou
,
Eugenio Valdano
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International risk of secondary hantavirus clusters following MV Hondius outbreak
The multinational Andes virus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius has exposed contacts across several countries, but the absence of …
Boxuan Wang (王博玄)
,
Enrico Lorenzetti
,
Francesco Parino
,
Vittoria Colizza
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Estimating the introduction risk and sustained transmission of the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak 2026 in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Background: Portugal has been committed to achieve UNAIDS target goals by the end of 2030 by improving accessibility of prevention …
Joao Brazia
,
Boxuan Wang (王博玄)
,
Paula Meireles
,
Eugenio Valdano
,
Andreia Sofia Teixeira
DOI
Journal website
Rainfall-driven disruptions in respiratory epidemic surveillance: Evidence from COVID-19 in France and New York State
Extreme weather events can disrupt human behavior and access to health services, possibly affecting the surveillance of respiratory …
Susanna Carmen Caruso
,
Claudio Ascione
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Foundation models for time series forecasting and policy evaluation in infectious disease epidemics
Epidemic forecasting and public health policy evaluation rely on mathematical models, but traditional approaches struggle in …
Suprabhath Kalahasti
,
Benjamin Faucher
,
Boxuan Wang (王博玄)
,
Claudio Ascione
,
Ricardo Carbajal
,
Maxime Enault
,
Cristophe Vincent Cassis
,
Titouan Launay
,
Caroline Guerrisi
,
Pierre-Yves Boëlle
,
Federico Baldo
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Interplay of Generation Time and Spatial Structure in Epidemic Dynamics and the Reliability of Reproduction Ratio Estimates
The reproduction ratio R is a central metric for monitoring infectious disease epidemics and guiding public health interventions. It is …
Claudio Ascione
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Discovering the laws behind complex networked systems
A recent study shows that neural symbolic regression offers a route to automated discovery of governing equations for network dynamics …
Iacopo Iacopini
,
Eugenio Valdano
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Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfires increases disease circulation
As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, are increasing, with profound …
Beatriz Arregui García
,
Claudio Ascione
,
Arianna Pera
,
Boxuan Wang (王博玄)
,
Davide Stocco
,
Colin J. Carlson
,
Shweta Bansal
,
Eugenio Valdano
,
Giulia Pullano
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How floods may affect the spatial spread of respiratory pathogens: the case of Emilia-Romagna, Italy in May 2023
The negative impact of floods on public health has been increasing, as climate change makes these events more frequent and intense. …
Claudio Ascione
,
Eugenio Valdano
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