International risk of secondary hantavirus clusters following MV Hondius outbreak

Abstract

The multinational Andes virus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius has exposed contacts across several countries, but the absence of further confirmed cases remains difficult to interpret given the long incubation period. We estimate the probability that secondary clusters may emerge using a stratified branching-process model parameterized with country-level tracing and isolation indicators. The risk of sustained spread is low, but secondary clusters remain plausible under imperfect isolation or pre-symptomatic transmission. These results support coordinated contact tracing and effective isolation while exposed contacts remain within the risk window.