Projecting the COVID-19 epidemic risk in France for the summer 2021

Abstract

France’s COVID-19 epidemic situation is at a turning point. Case incidence is increasing with the rapid progression of the Delta variant (63% of detected cases carried the L452R mutation as of July 16).1,2 Vaccination rates had been dropping since the end of May,3 but recently announced policies have boosted them. Their effect on the pandemic, however, will be inevitably delayed. Incidence, presence of Delta variant, vaccination and infection-acquired immunity are heterogeneous in space, and this may be further exacerbated by summer-season mobility. Here, we propose a risk metric based on five components to identify the departments in mainland France that will be more exposed to sharp surges during summer 2021.